We know how many IPs from each country the bridge has seeing (extra-infos bridge-ips) as well as the requests for nework statuses (dirreq-*). We can monitor those for each bridge and if they drop in a certain country we can consider this bridge being blocked there.
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In particular, the idea here is a composite passive+active idea: use the passive "has its usage dropped off?" heuristic to prioritize which bridges to send to the active scanner. The tuning will be tricky, but that is why it is an idea to investigate. :)
And yes, "passive detection" is one of the five ideas in the blog post above.
Be sure to look at the "indirect scanning" idea too -- Roya at Michigan, and Paul Pearce at Georgia Tech (previously at ICSI), have deployed the "spooky scan" indirect scanning technique, and they are using it in practice for their censorship scans, and they have several times offered to work together with us to scan Tor infrastructure. I'm happy to try once more to connect people to them when the time is right.
Kind of related to that we want to document how bridge operators can test if their bridges are blocked in a certain country as IP blocks are often bidirectional: team#79
We should figure out a way for bridge operators to report when they are blocked so we don't distribute it in that country.
Roger Dingledinechanged title from detect if a bridge is blocked in a certain country by it's reported usage to detect if a bridge is blocked in a certain country by its reported usage
changed title from detect if a bridge is blocked in a certain country by it's reported usage to detect if a bridge is blocked in a certain country by its reported usage